Tough loss with the Kansas City Royals last night. They got off to a hot start, but credit the Houston Astros. They are a very resilient team and they stuck to their game plan to pull out a 6-5 victory late in the game. Losses are part of the business. You are never going to win every single game you bet, the most successful handicappers in the industry hit 65%. It is important to practice proper money management when sports betting so you will be able to take a loss here and there. I encourage you to check out proper money management skills here.
Now, on to the Nationals. Typically, I stay away from huge favorites. I mentioned this in an earlier post by showing the dangers of taking HUGE favorites in the MLB. Basically, the danger is that you essentially have to win 2 games for the profits of one regular priced game. Today, I will ignore this and take the Washington Nationals, for one simple reason: Max Scherzer. By far, Scherzer is having the most impressive season for a pitcher in the MLB this year. He comes into this matchup against the Atlanta Braves with an incredibly low 1.79 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP. Max has struck out 130 batters this year while only walking 14, this tells us that he has great command with his pitches. Check out more stats on Scherzer here. His 2-seam fastball looks to be unhittable this year as he has thrown a no hitter two starts ago, and was one out away from a perfect game in that matchup against the Pirates. Three starts ago, Scherzer threw a one hitter against the Milwaukee Brewers.
I try not to fall overly in love with one pitcher throughout a year because everyone is going to lose a game at some point, but I believe there is good value with Scherzer tonight. Later in the season, most of his starts will be favored around -250 to -300. Tonight, we get the nationals at -190. The Braves are sitting at +168. I found an alarming stat last night: home underdogs of +160 through +169 are 6-11 straight up this year for a 35% mark. Only 6 batters for the Braves have seen Scherzer in their career. Only one, A.J. Pierzynski, has success against him. Scherzer simply has electric stuff this year and I encourage you to take the Nationals and swallow this steep price, as it will be worth it when the Nationals roll on to beat the Braves in this last game of the series. Good luck.
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